Fearless commentary on finance, economics, politics and power

Escalation advocates argue that bombing Iran could extract concessions, collapse the regime, or permanently secure Israel. History suggests otherwise. Strategic bombing has repeatedly failed to produce regime collapse, even under extreme destruction. More importantly, even the most maximal hypothetical “success” against Iran would not resolve Israel’s deeper strategic dilemma. The Middle East is not a two-player system, and force cannot substitute for a political end state. Without defined limits and durable arrangements, military action merely resets the cycle of conflict—accumulating risk over time rather than producing security.

DHS is using a repurposed $55 billion Navy contract to turn warehouses into makeshift jails and plan sprawling tent cities in the boonies.

Donald Trump’s vision of low-cost colonialism bears echoes of the fiscal receivership model pioneered by Theodore Roosevelt, which did not end well for most concerned.    

What was Modi thinking? Even though Trump is surely exaggerating what his deal amounts to, it looks like a big climbdown for India.

Congressional inaction and rampaging heath premium increases mean even more Americans will go uninsured. Some suggestions about what to do.

Trump’s mask of unreality is slipping as the narrative collides with inconvenient realities like the Epstein files and election results.

A rich discussion of how industrial capitalism evolved into imperialism and how its impulses and contradictions are creating more fractures.

Many factors point to the value, one might even say necessity, of Trump going TACO on Iran soon. But what might happen then?

 Billionaire tech libertarians have long sought “freedom cities” free from government oversight. It increasingly looks like they’re going to get a “freedom country” instead. 

“This was a bribe.”

Lilya 4-Ever is a film about the desperation of post-Soviet Russia and it’s exploitation by the West told through the life of a young prostitute.

Before the attention economy consumed our lives, “pursuit tests” devised by the US military coupled man to machine with the aim of assessing focus under pressure. What connects them to AI?